SEE THE GREATER TRENDS
     Do you remember the scene from the movie "Patch Adams" in the mental hospital when the grouchy businessman neighbor teaches Robin Williams to hold up four fingers, but to look past them to see the true solution, therefore blurring them to eight?  He urged Patch to look beyond problems to see the true issue.  As we build and protect our special organizations in this new year, we must see past the noise and understand the greater trends.
     As a young financial advisor, and with the help of many people much smarter than myself, I was able to see that technology would then enable a new business model creating boutique wealth management companies.  These boutiques could provide the same level of expertise and access for investors through advanced automation and partnerships with Wall Street, while providing the small company personal service and attention which had nearly become extinct in the the large firms.  In a rare moment of clarity, I got off the train carrying everyone else, and with a little bit of luck and a lot of hard work, was able to build this model to serve clients in 42 states and 5 countries.
     Our busy task list, the trillion emails in our inbox, and the sensationalized media divert our daily attention from the big picture.  In business and the economy, we focus on the noise of here and now while Adam Smith's "invisible hand" is actually creating the broader result, or negatively, bringing us the next Black Swan to destroy our best-laid plans.  This year let's promise to take a breath, raise our head out of the trenches, and see through the fog and friction of warfare [and I promise to stop mixing so many metaphors!].  Let's look at a few bigger trends:

1.  Bet on America!  I love the following synopsis from the Wall Street journal last year. "The lesson here is that, as Warren Buffet likes to say, don't bet against the United States to succeed.  America makes mistakes, voters sometimes hand power to misguided politicians, and the public sometimes succumbs to financial manias that turn into panics and crashes.  But left to work, trade and invest without too much political interference, Americans unleash their energies in productive fashion.  Stocks fluctuate, but over time they go up - often in years you least expect it."  Amazing.  We must look past stumbles and short-term failures, and put our chips on winners, not just America but also those quality companies and quality people you should never bet against.  I have a short list of people I would never bet against.

2.  There's a ton of oil, the U.S. is a net-exporter, and it plays a smaller and smaller role every year.  So, there will be short-term spikes and crashes in prices and production in which fortunes can be made and lost, but long-term it will not be the controlling variable it used to be.  We will have plenty of it, thanks to fracking and other technologies, until the world's smart people figure out how to make nuclear and sustainable energies, and the batteries, economically-self-sustaining without tax dollars.
     President Trump alluded to the same last week when he basically said, "Why am I messing around in the Middle East?  I don't need their oil anymore."  Around 21% of global crude and petroleum products flow through the Straight of Hormuz, and oil prices barely budged last week with the threat of war.  Richard Soultanian, co-president of energy consulting firm NUS Consulting Group, said despite the geopolitical risks, the market is still oversupplied, and he points to record supply from the U.S. and OPEC's resistance to meaningfully reduce global output.  Move onto water.  Water is the next oil, and it will even be congruent with your save-the-planet mission.

3.  We have already won the trade war with China, but they haven't told you yet.  The daily tweets and media stories declaring trade Armageddon, when impeachment hearings or other scandals have a light news day, are just noise distracting you from the Invisible Hand.  In his Political Economics column, Joseph Sternberg recently provided a clear synopsis.  "China's current-account-surplus  -  the amount by which its exports of goods and services and income from overseas investments - has shrunk for years.  It's likely to tip into a deficit early this decade, meaning China will import more goods and services (and receive less profit from overseas) than its exports."  That might be startling to you.  Let's repeat, soon China will be importing more than it exports.
     To accommodate this radical global economic shift, China will have to entice more foreign investment into its domestic economy - factories and service companies.  This will demand that China implements better rule-of-law protections for foreigners and intellectual property, even human rights.  In other words, everything we have been arguing about will come about simply because of the demands of demographics and silent rules of free markets.  Don't we keep saying in JAM VIEWS that money rules all?  Markets always override government interventions.  See past the 8 fingers.

     Shut out the noise and think through the larger trends in your business, charity or world mission.  On Oct. 21, 2016, Politico wrote, "Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House."  The S&P 500 has risen approximately 46% since then.  The Bureau of Land Management released its plan to be green and install a 7,100-acre solar farm in the desert outside Las Vegas, but it's now being opposed by the Greens because the arrays will disturb the desert tortoise, the Kit Fox and the Threecorner Milkvetch plant.  Keep chanting to yourself, "It's all nonsense!"
     Finally, a thought to help us foresee the bigger picture, hang a frame in your home office of Dorothy Lange's 1936 iconic image, "Migrant Mother."  I know I am planning to.

"Haste ye.  Walk while you have the light, lest darkness come upon you, for he that walketh in darkness knoweth not whither he goeth." John 12:35

** Many thanks to the WSJ, Forbes and Fortune for the above quotes and statistics.

** Photo credit goes to www.iucnredlist.org

** For more information on Jeff's Books, Blog, and Legal Challenge, please visit www.jeffmartinovich.com.

** To access JAM Views directly please visit jeffreyamartinovich.blogspot.com 

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PRIVATIZE CENTRAL AMERICA
     Okay follow me on this JAM VIEWS solution.  The answer to today's multiple challenges is to 1) re-invoke the Monroe Doctrine, 2) move manufacturing and production away from the Far East and to Central and South America, and 3) then replicate Amazon's new Corporate University over and over. (see again, JAM VIEWS Post "Corporate Universities" - I knew Bezos was reading it on Sunday mornings!).  While this master plan will solve a myriad of current problems for the United States, and so many others, the best part is that all of the baseball cap makers will only have to add one more "A" to produce "MAGAA" for "Make America Great Again - All of it."  Now, follow the pieces of the puzzle.

1)  President Monroe drafted the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 to basically tell the world to stay out of the Western Hemisphere, and to communicate that an attack on our neighbors, or setting up shop in our backyard, would be viewed as an affront to the United States.  For example, this Doctrine even empowered JFK to blockade Khrushchev's missiles from reaching Cuba.  Yet, as JAM VIEWS members have learned, everything is about money, and clearly we have missed the real war in our own backyard by sending our business half-way around the world.

2)  Former Secretary of State, George Shultz, a great American, recently released his thoughts for the U.S. Government to rebuild Central America, which included a long list of government programs but left out the billions, if not trillions, of U.S. taxpayer dollars required. (see again, JAM VIEWS Post "The Government Has No Money").  But, with great respect to Secretary Shultz, I believe he, again, has it backwards.  Instead, we should keep the inefficient and unproductive government out of it, and should unleash Corporate America and unfettered capitalism among the entire Central and South American region.
     How many centuries, or millennia, must it take for people to understand that government programs such as Foreign Aid, the IMF, The World Bank, the U.N., and a thousand more at best apply a short-term band-aid, and more commonly further propagate poverty, dependency, and crime?  To keep a man down, give him a helping hand but not a hand up.  Capitalism provides hands up and steps up which actually change the entire paradigm long-term.
     The U.S. Government should play its proper and powerful role of providing "signaling" and freeing of the "invisible hand," and then get out of the way.  The current Administration has demonstrated this power with the trade and ideological confrontation with China.  Following the implementation of 25% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, and the threat of duty on another $300 billion, Chinese exports to the U.S. have fallen 12.3% year-over-year from January through May.  Corporate America has quickly adapted and reordered global manufacturing supply chains.  Vietnam imports to the U.S. in the same period are up 36.4%, Taiwan has increased 22.5%, and South Korea is up 12.4%.  But, we need to bring all of this back to the Western Hemisphere.  President Monroe would argue for a long list of collateral benefits for everyone.
     The U.S. Government should signal ("something that incites to action") that Central and South America are reopened for business by a) creating low-tax and zero-tax industries and enterprise zones, b) translating FICA and FUTA tax exemptions to earned income back to U.S. corporations and individuals, c) expanding corporate entity legal protection to these areas to mimic pro-business environments in places such as Nevada and Wyoming, d) enabling and endorsing private protection of employees, facilities, and communities, and e) encouraging private training and education systems for workers, to name only a few tactics.
     Again, the U.S. Government's role is to effect the structure, manage international relations, and cheerlead the thousands of corporations which would overnight transform our neighbors' visions from hopelessness to prosperity.  How long did it take Yeti, iRobot, Crocs, and now Apple to change their Chinese production lines and the tremendous number of variables in that equation?  Five months?  Diesel-engine maker Cummins Inc. said it has avoided $50 million in tariff expenses by moving production to India.
     What would happen tomorrow in the Northern Triangle of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, or in Venezuela, if Pepsi opened a new local facility with 1,200 entry-level jobs?  The caravan would disband overnight.  Remember the story of how New York City's government was too inept to renovate Times Square's ice skating rink, so citizen Trump took over the project and completed it ahead of schedule and under budget?  Remember last week's Post about how the U.S. Government couldn't free the Iranian hostages, so Ross Perot trained up a team of employees and went in and rescued his people?
     You must not get confused about who creates the problems and who solves the problems.  Secretary Shultz claims that after the "violence, riots and cultural malaise" of the 60's and 70's, "elected leaders here and elsewhere committed themselves to solving the problems of the day."  What actually happened was that we finally pulled out of the disaster created by the Government called The Vietnam War, and repositioned the citizens and our capital to soon be freed by lower taxes, reduced regulations, and path back to free markets.

3)  Finally, I more than anyone want to protect and promote U.S. Jobs, but let's review why these East Asian jobs are never coming back to the U.S., and why that's actually a win-win.  First, we cannot turn the clock back far enough for the economics to make sense in the U.S.  John Hoge, co-owner of Sea Eagle Boats, says, "If we were to try to do a factory in the U.S., it would be enormously expensive."  Due to our nation's great success, our time for this production has passed, and now we should fully pass the baton to our Western Hemisphere partners.
     Second, creating prosperity in Central and South America not only brings illegal immigration to a screeching halt, but will actually attract million of undocumented aliens, as well as U.S. citizens to emigrate to these burgeoning opportunities.  These good, hardworking people will find opportunities and dignity, and will also not desire, or have the need, to be enrolled in U.S. subsistence programs. (Did you see all 12 debaters, to include Joe Biden, raise their hands in support of U.S. taxpayers picking up the tab for complete healthcare for all illegal immigrants?).
     Third, Corporate America, itself, will follow Amazon's recent lead to take on the responsibility of upgrading workers' skills and education out of sheer necessity.  Jeff Bezos is not relying on the irrelevant university campuses or the federal job training programs which are run by labor unions with little connection to the real future needs of employers.  Just as we promoted in our "Corporate Universities" Post, Amazon has now committed to retrain a third of its U.S. workforce, nearly 100,000 employees, in robotics, drones, machine learning and other specialties which fill the "skills gap" in the U.S.  Employees will earn certifications, degrees, and even graduate-level education, all without the tens of thousands of dollars in loans.
     Amazon made clear that this is not charity, but that they are simply acting in their own "self-interest by providing these educational benefits to attract and retain workers to stay ahead of competitors in a tight labor market."  Bezos must also be reading Adam Smith.  And, as opposed to Bernie's plan, this doesn't cost taxpayers one dollar.  Better yet, maybe we might even see a tectonic shift in American universities to provide better, relevant education at competitive, much lower prices.  Nice job, Amazon.
     Okay, so you understand the plan?  Let's make it happen and meet next month for our first board meeting in the Dominican Republic.  Mai tais and pina coladas for all my friends!  Have a great week!

"Yes, Latinos dream more. When you live in poverty, when your president is imposed upon you, when they kill someone and no one gets indicted, and when only a few get rich, of course you dream more. It's no coincidence that magic realism happens in Latin America, because for us dreams and aspirations are part of life."  -  Jorge Ramos

** Many thanks to the WSJ, Forbes, and Fortune for the above statistics and quotations.

For more information on Jeff's Books, Blog, and Legal Challenge, please visit www.jeffmartinovich.com.

** To access JAM Views directly please visit jeffreyamartinovich.blogspot.com 

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SUPPORT YOUR COMRADES IN HONG KONG

     There is no freedom without economic freedom.  As JAM VIEWS continuously preaches, everything is about the money.  While mainland China's attempts to control and suppress Hong Kong are framed as infringements on freedom and democracy, educated JAM VIEWS members see this struggle for what it has always been; governments grabbing the economic jewels to tax them, control their destinies, and to then turn around and redistribute them back to the people as a gift, as aid.
     Remember that Mayer Amschel Rothschild famously repeated that he didn't care who ran the countries, as he just wanted to control the money.  The reason China President Xi needs to control Hong Kong's prosperity, and will eventually screw it up by killing the golden goose, is that economic freedom empowers the masses.  If Hong Kong's capitalism continues to bleed over into the mainland, the China state-run economy which owns stakes in all successful industries and "companies," will soon find itself with too many actual competitors.
     Once the masses have economic options, such as with the current historically-low unemployment in the U.S., and most notably for minorities, the maternal role of the government is no longer required, or desired.  For Hong Kong citizens they now realize that it is much worse to have had economic success and freedom and lost it, than to have never had it at all.  President Xi, along with all other socialists and communists, doesn't want more people to understand this.
     In America, if more people have individual economic success, they will scoff at Bernie's and AOC's attempts to make them believe that they need the government to give them health care or an education. With economic prosperity and rugged individualism, the people decide to buy their own services and products, to include the specific model, size and color they desire.  If people can control their own lives, then what power and what jobs are Bernie, AOC, and Xi left with?  Back to waitressing, I assume.
     Jess Leung, a Hong Kong student, proclaimed, "Without freedom, there is no difference from being in jail."  One of my favorite op-ed writers, Peggy Noonan, summed it up best.  "The second country that needs a slap this week is China.  It needs to be told no - colorfully, vividly, and in a great chorus.  It needs to know the upset it is causing in trying to muscle the people of Hong Kong with extradition moves is not worth the gain - that it will ruffle things in a way that is not good for China.  The world admires Hong Kong's freedom, bustle and success...world be roused.  Push back through word, opinion and argument."
     Surprising the world, 2 million out of 7 million Hong Kong citizens marched last weekend in protest to China's attempt, through their puppet Chief Executive Ms. Lam, to pass an extradition law which allows them to swoop into Hong Kong and grab any citizen who doesn't follow the party line politically, economically or socially.
     It can be very dangerous to have great success or an agenda contrary to the party in power.  Did you pay attention to the fact that the great majority of indictments and charges from the Mueller investigation were for "lying to federal agents?"  The charges were not for actual underlying crimes, but for mistating details during the multitude of threatening discussions on the record or off, under oath or not, with immunity or without.  That is the game. Why do you think everyone refuses to  be interviewed if they can avoid it?
     In 1984, Britain and China signed the Sino-British Joint Declaration setting forth Hong Kong's future legal and economic autonomy.  The 1992 U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act laid out the framework for Hong Kong as a customs territory and economic entity separate from China.  Therefore, Hong Kong now enjoys special advantages with the U.S., to include tariffs, visas and law enforcement.  But, China's massive state bureaucracy cannot let this ideology spread further inland, or President Xi might have to get a waiter job himself.  He prefers the recently-awarded King For Life.
     All politics are local, and all freedom is economical. Support your capitalist comrades in Hong Kong, and support individual economic empowerment at every turn in the United States.  How quickly things can degrade for those of us who are not diligent in protecting what is right and true.  Does the NSA record your every call and text and store them in massive data storage facilities?  Do we want the government to give us our food, our work, our healthcare, and our education?  Why would we want any of that?
     Tom Fund, a history major in Hong Kong, recalled that he only learned about the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre by accessing an unpublised manuscript written by his history teacher which included photos of tanks rolling over citizens. Staring at the pictures he asked, "Are they really real?"
     As the Founding Fathers understood that the power of the Second Amendment lied not in being able to protect us from one another, but in protecting us from a tyrannical government, the citizens of Hong Kong now understand that economic empowerment is even a much stronger weapon for protecting their families' safety and prosperity.
     This week JAM VIEWS salutes the courageous citizens of Hong Kong. World be roused!

"There are two types of people who will tell you that you cannot make a difference in the world; those who are afraid to try and those who are afraid you will succeed."  -  Ray Goforth

 ** Thank you very much to the WSJ, Forbes, and Fortune for the above quotations and statistics.

** For more information on Jeff's Books, Blog, and Legal Challenge, please visit www.jeffmartinovich.com.

** To access JAM Views directly please visit jeffreyamartinovich.blogspot.com 

* SUBSCRIBE TO JAM VIEWS

* PLEASE USE THE BELOW SHARE BUTTONS TO SPREAD THE WORD!