Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts

Saturday, August 17, 2019

UPDATES - FOLLOW THE FACTS, NOT THE NARRATIVE

     This week we want to review some important updates.  There is much positive karma going on out there - which of course you would never hear in the news - and the potential is even so much greater if capitalism and education are permitted to keep quietly flourishing (well maybe not so quietly).  Here are some facts:

1.  Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, recently released a report explaining the true job growth and "reversing of income inequality" now occurring in the United States.  Low tax rates and deregulation are creating 200,000 new jobs a month for our citizens in 2019, which is roughly double the number needed to keep up with population growth.  So, 100,000 citizens per month are still coming off the unemployment rolls!  More than 70% of the people taking these new jobs reported that in the prior month they weren't even looking for work!  Yes, the opportunities are too good to resist, even for all of the people who had considered themselves disabled and preferred a government check.  Wow.
     Interestingly, as unemployment has plummeted to 3.6%, unemployment for recent community college and vocational school grads is 30-40% less than four-year college grads.  Wake up call for the under-achieving university system in our country?  Wages are increasing over 3% and the "less educated" wages are growing nearly double the "educated."  Wages in mining are up 7.5%, leisure and hospitality 4.4% and retail 4.3%, while wages in finance are up 2.3%.  No wonder the elites, technocrats and trust fund babies are losing their minds!  Go with the facts, not the false narratives spread by those with the microphones.

2.  The smart ones understand that nuclear energy is the energy answer for the future, and holds a far greater potential than the next-best alternative.  Yet, the elites continue to pursue nonsensical agendas to simply stir up voters.  Wyoming Senator John Barrasso, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public works, recently attempted to overcome the barriers to finally completing the Yucca Mountain nuclear waster storage facility in Nevada.  He claims that if the U.S. is serious about climate change, we must become serious about nuclear energy.  Nuclear power generates roughly 20% of our power today and 60% of our carbon-free energy, which is more than 3X the energy produced by wind and 18X the amount of solar.
     The Yucca Mountain storage site is larger than Massachusetts and is determined to safely contain this material for at least a million years, while new technologies are dramatically reducing even this storage requirement.  Because of "New Green" plans, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission stopped work on Yucca in 2015, and eight states have passed laws against building more nuclear capability until this is resolved.
     Mark Mills, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, attempted to clarify the true "waste and destruction" which must occur to meet global agendas such as the Paris Accord.  A single electric-car battery weighs 1,000 pounds, while fabricating one requires digging up and processing 500,000 pounds of raw materials "somewhere on the planet."  Building a wind turbine requires 900 tons of steel, 2,500 tons of concrete, and 45 tons of nonrecyclable plastic, while solar power requires even more cement, steel, and glass plus rare-earth elements.
     To meet these "renewable" agendas, silver mining must jump 250%, indium 1,200%, and other elements 300-1,000%.  Finally, don't forget that more than 90% of the world's solar panels are built in Asia on coal-heavy electric grids blacking out the sky at today's levels, and the 2050 Paris Accord targets for solar will result in the disposal of more than double the tonnage of today's global plastic waste. [But at least Starbuck's is using paper straws!].

3.  In our continuous campaign to support school choice and charter schools, we wanted to highlight Baker Mitchell's fantastic efforts in North Carolina.  A retired electrical engineer who sold his company and began volunteering as an elementary school science teacher, Mr. Mitchell became inspired by Thaddeus Lott, the principal of the high-achieving, low-income Wesley Elementary in Houston.  He became so inspired that he founded the Roger Bacon Academy which oversees four charter schools in southeastern North Carolina.  He recently published a report to counter the opposition's current strategy to play the race card to stop these successful schools.  He reports that in North Carolina charter schools have a 26.1% black enrollment versus 25.2% for state district schools.  The report presented to the North Carolina General Assembly this year confirmed that at virtually every grade level and virtually every student subgroup - white, African American, Hispanic, economically disadvantaged, students with disabilities, and students with limited English proficiency - charters outperformed the district schools in English, math and science.  As 40% or more of Roger Bacon's students come from low-income households, Mr. Mitchell says his critics simply "do not want families making education decisions for their children.  The system does not want to lose control or money."  We are incredibly grateful for warriors like Mr. Mitchell.

     Know the facts.  Don't succumb to the narratives.  Have a great week!

"The two of us are quite rich...both of us are sons of immigrants who came to these shores with almost nothing...we know that we can spend our dollars more wisely, and in ways that benefit our communities and our country, than politicians can...the businesses we created have employed hundreds of thousands of Americans...We have given more than $2 billion to charity...Our patriotism is measured not in how much we pay in taxes - which is a lot - but in the businesses and the wealth and the jobs we create."  -  Bernie Marcus, co-founder of The Home Depot, and John Catsimatidis, owner of Red Apple Group.




** Thank you very much to the WSJ, Forbes, and Fortune for the above quotations and statistics.

** For more information on Jeff's Books, Blog, and Legal Challenge, please visit www.jeffmartinovich.com.

** To access JAM Views directly please visit jeffreyamartinovich.blogspot.com 

SUBSCRIBE TO JAM VIEWS

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Saturday, August 3, 2019

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS IN TROUBLE!
     As kids we were taught that if we didn't get the fundamentals correct, we would fail when it came time to perform.  If we spent the summer at the pool instead of practicing left-handed layups, or fielding grounders at the hot corner, that kid across town would eat our lunch come time for the District Championships.  John Wooden, Pete Rose, and Carli Lloyd have taught us that without strong fundamentals, when the pressure is on, we will eventually fail.
     Today our focus on identify politics, socialism, and how many Instagram followers we can build has caused us to take our eye off the economic fundamentals.  Remember JAM VIEWS members, when the money doesn't work nothing else matters.  The scary part today is that momentum, kinetic energy, just seems to keep this reality TV show going until one day it doesn't.  Let's take a current inventory of broken fundamentals:

1.  Negative interest rates in Europe are such a "no big deal" now that the European Central Bank is moving to cut interest rates even further and to reinitiate quantitative easing (flooding more money into the system).  As a reminder, 40% of global bonds yield less than 1% and over $13 trillion (yes, trillion) of bonds have negative interest rates (you pay them to hold your money!).  I frequently get the question, "Why would anyone do that?"  The paradoxical answer is that U.S. and global pensions, insurers, and financial institutions have so much money (especially with the extra $12 trillion printed out of thin air by the U.S. in 2008) that they have to put it somewhere.  Their legal, regulatory, and liquidity constraints, along with their own Investment Policy Statements, mandate that a significant percentage of their portfolio be allocated in government and corporate AA and AAA-rated securities.  Therefore, it is mandated that they make irrational investment decisions because of previous irrational decisions against the fundamentals - technocrats and corporate lemmings all going with the flow, rationalizing to a farmer in Iowa that this is how it has to be.

2.  The U.S. Federal Reserve just lowered interest rates in fear of the U.S. economy beginning to stall, trade war impacts, and the dollar strengthening against other currencies "because they are lowering rates also."  Whatever happened to the U.S. Federal Reserve's self-imposed mandate to focus on stable currency and 2% inflation (as wrong as that may be)?  Why did the Federal Reserve raise interest rates last December when the stock market was tanking, credit markets were seizing up, and inflation expectations were falling, only to now lower rates this week while equities are at record new highs and wages in June grew at 5.5% year over year according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)?  Remember another JAM VIEWS message - the government technocrats have no idea what they are doing and never have.  This is why, in relation to currency, we should follow the advice of Steve Forbes and likely new Fed board nominee, Judy Shelton, and return to a gold standard - or some fixed standard - to take control out of the hands of ivy-league elitists who have mucked it up for decades.

3.  Speaking of the gold standard, always discard Washington's rationales for leaving the standard, and know that it simply was about printing more money.  If we had fixed weights and measures, we could not print more money and just pray that the rest of the world keeps following the full faith and credit of the U.S. dollar.  The current Administration has done a Herculean job of implementing fiscal changes back in the direction of Adam Smith and free markets.  Not only are wages up significantly for the 99%, but the personal savings rate was also revised upward to 8.1%, meaning that we all are not over-leveraging ourselves as in other bubble economies.  Employee compensation has increased 42% more during the last two years than in 2015 and 2016 (those are huge numbers for real people).  EMPLOYEE compensation grew by nearly $1 trillion between 2016 and 2018.  Wow.
     Yet, remember in your business fundamentals course on income and liabilities when they explained that all of the income growth in the world won't help if you are spending even more?  Remember when your parents fought all night about the checkbook and claimed they could never get ahead even with three jobs unless they cut the spending?  With all "thy getting" we are now getting, we are still spending even more.  Why can't we make politicians stop spending our money?  Why do we allow them to just print more debt out of thin air to fund their "compromises?"  Are we that distracted and apathetic to try to understand, to try and stop them?  Because of the tax cuts and regulation cuts, Federal tax revenue is up (don't let the misinformed tell you otherwise), yet spending is also way up.  Who will cut entitlements?  The rest is down in the noise.  Understand the fundamentals.

4.  Finally, there are so many signs that, unless we get back to economic fundamentals, that kid across town is about ready to embarrass us in the District Championships.  This year, gold has risen 10% against the U.S. dollar, and alternative currencies like bitcoin are up 160% against the dollar.  Are the increases in these alternative stores of wealth signaling a crisis in confidence in fiat currencies (paper money)?  When will the punch bowl be taken away?
     When it happens, as it always has and always will, let's hope everyone has studied the last seventy JAM VIEWS posts and are prepared for the next Black Swan.  With tens of trillions of more dollars in the system (M1, M2 & that stuff) ready to ignite at the first hint of inflation, as well as over a quadrillion dollars (yes, quadrillion) of derivatives now trading in the financial markets (both tremendously more than in 2008), the "impact" from a hiccup will make 2008 look like a rounding error.  And, wait until we add in free college for everyone, free medical for everyone in the Western Hemisphere, and turn all corporations into government agencies.  Check please!

     May we stay diligent this week, seek education and understanding, and find our own truths.  Have a great week!

"Give me a lever long enough, and I'll move the world."  -  Archimedes





** Thank you very much to the WSJ, Forbes and Fortune for the above quotations and statistics.

** For more information on Jeff's Books, Blog, and Legal Challenge, please visit www.jeffmartinovich.com.

** To access JAM Views directly please visit jeffreyamartinovich.blogspot.com 

SUBSCRIBE TO JAM VIEWS

* PLEASE USE THE BELOW SHARE BUTTONS TO SPREAD THE WORD!

Saturday, May 4, 2019


UPDATES: LICENSING SCAMS, INEPT FED, CHARTER BATTLES, & CRONY CAPITALISM

     JAM VIEWS members know that we periodically revisit important topics 1) to ensure we all fully understand the dramatic impact of correct economics and business practices, and 2) to remind us that the fight for free markets and rugged individualism is a never-ending battle against the Looters.
     LICENSING.  Previously we learned that state, city, and county licensing requirements are merely scams to protect the entrenched business interests which are funding the politician's campaigns, and to generate revenue to support the ever-expanding government bureaucracy and entitlement programs on the backs of hardworking small business owners.  Recently, the state of Arizona has freed small business and individuals by passing a law to be the first state to recognize out-of-state occupational licenses, including more than 40 professions from cosmetologists and court reporters to psychologists and surgeons.
     Republican State Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita stated, "The reform opens up an appealing job option for low-skilled workers who otherwise would have had to pay between $8,000 and $15,000 for (re)-schooling to do the same work."  This leadership-by-example will have a dramatic impact across many states and release more capitalism than you may imagine.  Also, this is a huge benefit for military spouses whom uproot themselves and their professions to move with their transferred service member.  GOP State Rep. Jeff Weninger declared, "We are open for business, and we're trying to cut back on red tape here."  Congratulations to Arizona!
     STABLE DOLLAR.  Following up on our lessons explaining that the goal is not a strong dollar, nor a weak dollar, but a stable dollar, Judy Shelton, an economist and author of "Money Meltdown: Restoring Order to the Global Currency System," recently released some interesting statistics to support our case.  Judy's book explains that we should question the Federal Reserve's competency, as "no other government institution had more influence over the creation of money and credit in the lead-up to the devastating 2008 global meltdown."  Currently the Fed pays banks to keep their $1.5 trillion in excess reserves (8x what's required) in accounts earning interest instead of making loans to the public to create businesses and spur job creation.
     The Fed has always incorrectly believed that inflation results from job creation.  Judy points out that "inflation results when too much money is chasing too few goods.  It is not caused by real economic growth where wages increase to properly compensate people for their higher levels of output achieved through productivity gains."
     Also, as we keep preaching, the Bank of England's recent report concluded that today's "Fed-controlled" system has performed poorly in comparison to our periods under the gold standard (1870-1913) and the gold-exchange system (1948-1972).  Having the stable gold standard enabled "accelerating labor productivity, falling income inequality and increased workforce participation.  The Obama 2015 Economic Report of the President even suggested that if this same growth had continued once Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1973, that U.S. citizen's "incomes would have been 58% higher in 2013, and "the median household would have had an additional $30,000 in income."
     JAM VIEWS members know we must have a stable currency based on gold (or something else), and that the technocrats the Government keeps trying to tell us are brilliant, are not.
     CHARTER SCHOOLS.  This week we are reminded that bureaucracies and entrenched interests hate the upstarts which greatly outperform their mediocrity, especially in our children's schools.  Ben Chavis, a Lumbee Indian raised by sharecroppers in rural North Carolina and successful businessman-turned-educator, became principal of American Indian Public Charter School (AIPCS) in 2000.  This Oakland, California public school was then the poster-child for failed schools: truancy, drugs, violence, failing test scores, and all the rest.
     By 2004, after Chavis installed discipline, standards, and performance metrics, the middle school students achieved higher math and reading test scores than students at any other public school in Oakland.  After Chavis then opened a high school, this charter in 2008 ranked fourth in the entire state for performance.  To top it off, he also started a second charter middle school which ranked 5th out of 1,300 California schools, and in 2006 was named one of the top 250 schools in the country.
     So how did they reward him?  In 2011 Mr. Chavis announced plans to expand further, so the Oakland School Board began an investigation and found "financial improprieties."  Next, to great national media fanfare, the federal prosecutors indicted Mr. Chavis on mail fraud, money laundering, and conflicts of interest (see "Indicting a ham sandwich").  Thank God, last week the U.S. Attorneys Office in San Francisco dropped all of these charges for insufficient evidence, and Mr. Chavis agreed to a technical violation in order to move forward.  But, he had to leave AIPCS in 2013 to fight for his life for 5 years.  With class and grace this week, he stated, "I'm not the victim.  The kids are the victims."
     Remember to support school choice, support merit-based rewards, and to embrace others who succeed.  No schadenfreude!
     Finally, a quick note on CAPITALISM.  Ms. Chamlee-Wright, President of the Institute for Humane Studies at George Mason University, issued an article clarifying that our ultimate goal is not only to defeat all aspects of socialism, but also Crony Capitalism, the entrenched large-corporation, political-lobbyist, licensing-barriers-to-entry types of impure capitalism.  She also promotes questioning everyone and everything.  She stated, "I believe that competitive and open markets (plus lots of social and political freedom) are the answer.  Perhaps you think otherwise, but we should have that conversation rather than unthinkingly accept what's put in front of us."  She must be a JAM VIEWS reader!
     A reminder this week to do everything possible to support business startups and entrepreneurial mentality.  Stop at every lemonade stand, and always buy those water-logged golf balls from the kid peddling his inventory next to the pond on the 7th hole.  The Universe is watching.

"We must make the building of a free society once more an intellectual adventure, a deed of courage."  -  F.A. Hayek, Economist.




** Thank you very much to the WSJ, Forbes, and Fortune for the above quotations and statistics.

** For more information on Jeff's Books, Blog, and Legal Challenge, please visit www.jeffmartinovich.com.

** To access JAM Views directly please visit jeffreyamartinovich.blogspot.com 

SUBSCRIBE TO JAM VIEWS

* PLEASE USE THE BELOW SHARE BUTTONS TO SPREAD THE WORD!

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